US spring planting is still months away, but recent declines in soybean futures mean the soybean-corn price ratio is swinging more in favour of corn for 2026.
With the new-crop December corn contract settling Monday at about US$4.65/bu, and November 2026 soybeans at $10.72, that produces a ratio of 2.30, below the historical average of 2.35 - 2.5. As most farmers know, a ratio below 2.5 typically suggests more acreage will be devoted to corn compared to soybeans.
The ratio has also strengthened in favour or corn since the beginning of December, when November soybeans were trading up around $11.25, while December corn was just under $4.70. At that time, the soybean-corn ratio was sitting at 2.39.
As shown on the charts below, November 2026 soybeans have moved mostly lower throughout December, as the market has remained decidedly unimpressed with the level of Chinese purchases after a late October trade truce struck between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping was supposed to lead to China buying 12 million tonnes of American soybeans by the end of this year.
China has indeed ramped up its purchases of US soybeans, but it’s still short of the 12-million tonne target, while Trump officials have pushed the deadline back for the completion of the purchases. Meanwhile, December corn futures have churned mainly sideways so far this month.
Of course, producers consider many more factors than just the soybean-corn price ratio when mapping out their new-crop planting plans. Input costs factor heavily into the decision as well – a factor that can undermine an input-heavy crop like corn, especially when profit margins are slim to non-existent.
The previous year’s crop can impact planting decisions as well, with producers often retaining a sour taste in their month immediately following a year that featured particularly low yields or significant quality problems. However, that wasn’t an issue for most US corn and soybeans growers in 2025.
Many farmers also largely stick to their regular crop rotations, regardless of crop prices.
Plenty can and will likely also still change in terms of prices between now and the spring planting season.
Baseline projections released by the USDA earlier this month pegged nationwide corn planted area for the spring at 95 million acres, down 3.7% from the 98.7 million planted in 2025, the highest since 1936. On the other hand, new-crop soybean planted area was estimated at 85 million acres, up 3.9 million or 4.8% from 2025, which marked the lowest since 2019.
November soybeans: source – Barchart
December corn: source - Barchart
